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GBP/USD has a good opportunity to continue its decline after reacting to bearish imbalance 19. However, the situation is not as straightforward as traders might prefer. Following Friday's decline triggered by the Nonfarm Payrolls report, a new bearish imbalance 20 was formed. Yesterday, the price fully filled this imbalance, and at the current pace of bullish pressure, it may be invalidated. If that happens, the bearish move will be interrupted before it has properly begun. Traders will once again be reminded of how quickly conditions can change in both the currency market and the Middle East.
At the beginning of the week, market sentiment was optimistic once again after Donald Trump stated that a deal with Iran could be signed within the next two weeks. However, as of Wednesday, Trump is talking about resuming military action against Iran and describing negotiations with Tehran as having broken down. It is difficult to determine who triggered the latest escalation and ceasefire violation in the Middle East. According to official reports, Iran destroyed a U.S. military helicopter on Tuesday, Washington responded with retaliatory strikes, and by Wednesday Tehran had launched attacks against neighboring countries allied with the United States. What comes next remains unclear.
Overall, the situation surrounding the Middle East conflict remains more positive than it was a few months ago, when the sides were engaged in full-scale warfare. Nevertheless, the geopolitical balance can shift in either direction at any moment. Over the past several weeks, we have witnessed numerous potential escalations, and only the reluctance of both sides to engage in active military operations has prevented a renewed war.
In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's sharp declines this year. The ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but it is still holding and may be extended for another 60 days. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and any assessment of progress in negotiations is largely based on statements from Donald Trump. Iran presents a very different picture. The situation continues to fluctuate between improvement and deterioration. At present, the market retains some confidence that an agreement can be reached, but that confidence has been steadily fading.
The technical picture is currently as follows. Bullish imbalance 18 generated a reaction, but bearish imbalance 19 eventually produced a sell signal as well. However, only two days after its formation, we are seeing bullish activity rather than bearish pressure, which does not even fully align with the current geopolitical backdrop. As a result, geopolitical developments continue to reverse price action on a regular basis, while traders often struggle to react quickly enough to conflicting news and events.
The economic calendar on Wednesday was nearly empty. The U.S. inflation report could have generated a strong market reaction if the May reading had deviated from market expectations by at least 0.1 percentage point. However, no deviation was recorded, and the market's response was therefore minimal.
The overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, in the long term, I continue to expect weakness in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States changes little in this regard. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded investors of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the broader outlook for the U.S. currency remains less favorable. If the U.S. economy gains momentum in 2026, the Federal Reserve resumes its monetary tightening cycle, and the conflict between the United States and Iran becomes prolonged, then the dollar could indeed target the 1.3100–1.3000 level. However, in my opinion, the long-term outlook for the U.S. currency could not have changed because of a single positive Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the Federal Reserve has not yet signaled any readiness to tighten policy.
News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
The economic calendar for June 11 contains two releases, neither of which I consider particularly important. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment may nevertheless be noticeable during the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish, although the latest signal generated is a sell signal. Therefore, in the near term, provided geopolitical developments do not interfere, bears may continue to target the March 31 low at 1.3158. Liquidity may be taken from recent swing levels, after which bulls could regain control if the geopolitical backdrop becomes more favorable.
At present, it is difficult to imagine a quick resolution to the conflict between Iran and the United States, which limits the pound's upside potential. At the same time, the dollar continues to face periodic pressure as occasional positive signals from the Middle East continue to emerge.
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