09.06.202600:49 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Bitcoin Returns to Crypto Winter

Bitcoin has returned to levels seen after the U.S. presidential elections in the fall of 2024. This is very symbolic. The rally of BTC/USD to record highs a year later was driven by investors' belief that Donald Trump would make America the crypto capital of the world. Now, as investors trust the White House's words less and less, faith in the bright future of digital assets has been significantly undermined.

Donald Trump was disappointed by the decline in stock indices in response to strong U.S. labor market data. In his view, the S&P 500 should be rising, yet it fell. Investors were frightened by the potential increase in the federal funds rate, although in reality, the rate needs to be lowered. Investors ignored the words of the White House owner — the Nasdaq Composite recorded its worst daily performance in over a year. Its decline provided temporary support to BTC/USD.

Dynamics of Bitcoin and Nasdaq

Prior to this, Trump stated that the deal with Iran was at the final stages of negotiations. However, other information was coming from Tehran. Supposedly, there was no progress in the talks, and payment was required for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is unlikely to be pleased by this news. The U.S. president is trying to downplay the resumption of hostilities between the Islamic Republic and Israel. He is very eager to sign a peace agreement, and his opponents are taking advantage of this.

Trump's words no longer command trust, and along with them, Bitcoin's trust is also diminishing. The drop in BTC/USD by more than half from record highs has forced crypto funds to struggle to survive. Their market value has fallen from a peak of $134 billion to $72 billion. As a result, companies that promised never to sell tokens face a difficult choice: either reduce their holdings or default.

Dynamics of crypto fund capitalization

The first to falter was the industry leader — Strategy by Michael Saylor. The company sold Bitcoin for $2.5 million for the first time in four years. While this amount is small relative to the volume of holdings, the mere fact of it triggered an avalanche of sell-offs.

Investors withdrew $4 billion from Bitcoin-focused ETFs during the longest historical streak of 12 consecutive days of outflows from specialized exchange-traded funds. They are reallocating capital to the U.S. stock market, favoring artificial intelligence technologies over digital assets. It is not surprising that the Nasdaq Composite's retreat allowed BTC/USD to find a bottom. However, I do not think the crowd will continue to sell equity securities. They will likely buy the dip very soon.

Technically, on the daily chart, BTC/USD is testing fair value and forming an inside bar. Traders might consider setting pending buy orders from 63,800 and sell orders from 62,400. Activation of one of these will allow for a trade. A re-entry is permitted in case of a single execution of the stop order.