05.06.202612:12 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – June 5th

EUR and GBP were traded today using the Momentum strategy. I did not take any trades using the Mean Reversion strategy.

In the second half of the day, we will see three important U.S. reports. The most significant will be the change in Nonfarm Payrolls for May. In addition, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will also be released.

These labor market indicators are key to understanding the current state of the U.S. economy and, consequently, to forecasting further actions by the Federal Reserve. The change in Nonfarm Payrolls is the most closely watched report. Strong employment growth typically signals solid economic recovery and may push the Fed toward tighter monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes.

The unemployment rate, in turn, reflects the overall picture of the labor market. A decline in unemployment is traditionally considered a positive signal, but a sharp drop may indicate an overheating labor market and potential inflation growth. Finally, changes in average hourly earnings are a critical component for assessing inflation risks. Rapid wage growth can lead to increased consumer spending, which in turn may fuel inflation—something the Federal Reserve aims to avoid.

In case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.1645 – potential rise to 1.1665 and 1.1684
• Sell breakout below 1.1630 – potential decline to 1.1600 and 1.1575

GBP/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.3480 – potential rise to 1.3510 and 1.3550
• Sell breakout below 1.3445 – potential decline to 1.3411 and 1.3370

USD/JPY

• Buy breakout above 160.00 – potential rise to 160.24 and 160.43
• Sell breakout below 159.80 – potential decline to 159.60 and 159.40

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.1666 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.1610 and return above this level

GBP/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3478 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3428 and return above this level

AUD/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 0.7150 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 0.7120 and return above this level

USD/CAD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3900 and return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3868 and return above this level