04.06.202615:53 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 4 (U.S. Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

Due to low market volatility, none of the levels I identified were tested during the first half of the day. As a result, I remained out of the market.

The market remains in wait-and-see mode ahead of potential currency intervention by the Bank of Japan aimed at strengthening the yen. Meanwhile, during the second half of the day, the focus will be on the release of U.S. initial jobless claims data and a speech by FOMC member Mary Daly.

The weekly initial jobless claims figure is an important indicator of labor market conditions. A decline in claims will be viewed as a sign of the resilience of the U.S. economy, a view that has recently been supported by other U.S. labor market reports.

Mary Daly's speech will provide insight into her assessment of the current economic situation and future outlook. Her remarks may offer important clues as to how the Federal Reserve evaluates inflation risks, the pace of economic growth, and the need for further interest rate increases. Today's events could serve as a catalyst for significant market movements.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry level around 159.95 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 160.25 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.25, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from that level. Further gains in the pair can be expected today if there is negative news regarding the agreement and strong U.S. economic data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.82 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 159.95 and 160.25 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 159.82 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.49, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if the data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.95 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 159.82 and 159.49 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market-entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.