29.05.202612:54 Analisis Forex & Kajian: US government sells crypto again

While Bitcoin is choosing a direction for the weekend, Lookonchain recorded a notable move: over the past two days the US government transferred roughly $5.3 million in crypto assets — funds seized in the FTX case — to a major US crypto exchange wallet.

Transfers to an exchange wallet traditionally mean one thing: preparation for a sale. This is not a one-off operation but a gradual, methodical sell-off — the approach US authorities typically use to minimize market impact from large disposals. Small batches moved day after day create less volatility than a single large dump, but together they form a steady stream of supply.

The episode is particularly ironic given active congressional debates over creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Recall that the draft ARMA bill envisages that government-seized crypto assets should be placed into a reserve and held there for at least 20 years. Treasury Secretary Bessent previously confirmed the administration's policy: "first stop the sales, then replenish the reserve with confiscations." In practice, however, the government continues to quietly monetize seized assets while lawmakers argue the details of reserve legislation. Until ARMA is passed and signed, the executive branch retains full discretion over confiscated property.

For the market, this episode adds another source of pressure to an already gloomy picture. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reached $733 million in a single day — the largest since January. Strategy is moving Bitcoin to exchanges, and Polymarket prices the probability that the company will sell coins before year-end at 84%. BlackRock twice this week shifted hundreds of millions of dollars onto exchanges, and yesterday was no exception. Now the US government joins the list of sellers, disposing of confiscated assets in small lots. Sellers are multiplying while buyers dwindle.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $74,700, which would open a direct path to $76,500. From there, $78,300 is within reach; a break above that level would indicate attempts to resume the bull market. On a decline, I expect buyers at $72,900. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,400. The furthest downside target is the $69,800 area.

Ethereum

A clear close above $2,026 would open a direct path to $2,084. The furthest target is the high near $2,128; overcoming it would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $1,969. A move back below that area could quickly drop ETH toward $1,911. The furthest downside target is the $1,845 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.