28.05.202613:34 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 28th (US Session)

Due to low market volatility, the price did not reach the levels I identified during the first half of the day.

Ahead, the market will focus on US first-quarter GDP data and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. In addition, Federal Reserve representatives John Williams and Alberto Musalem are scheduled to speak. This dense macroeconomic agenda will undoubtedly become a key test for market sentiment. The revised first-quarter GDP figure will serve as the final assessment of the real pace of economic growth at the beginning of the year. Any negative surprises or downward revisions toward stagnation will immediately intensify concerns about a potential recession, forcing market participants to reconsider their strategies.

However, the true focal point for financial markets will remain the Core PCE Index. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, this indicator could either strengthen expectations for imminent monetary policy easing or completely destroy them. Given recent developments, I would not place strong hopes on a slowdown in this indicator. Strong figures will restore demand for the US dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point near 1.3402 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3452 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3452, I plan to exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the level. Pound growth today can only be expected after weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3384 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3402 and 1.3452 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after a breakout below the 1.3384 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3342 level, where I plan to exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points from the level. Pressure on the pound will return today if strong data are released. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3402 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3384 and 1.3342 can then be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.