28.05.202603:44 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Intraday Analysis of EUR/USD on May 28. ICT Trading System. Another Day of Stagnation

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M:

The EUR/USD currency pair began the new week with a fairly strong upward surge, but the market then calmed and has been trading within a sideways channel for three consecutive days, limited by two areas: 1.1615-1.1625 and 1.1657-1.1666. Thus, we can speak of a flat formation. What is causing this flat? The macroeconomic backdrop is absent this week, and the fundamental backdrop is lacking. There is an abundance of geopolitical news every day, often contradictory. As a result, the market is not rushing to react to another geopolitical news item, understanding that it is highly likely to prove false. Therefore, there has simply been nothing for the market to react to this week. The ceasefire, negotiations, and the potential deal between the U.S. and Iran remain in limbo, and the market does not fully understand the chances of a positive outcome.

From a technical standpoint, the downward trend persists. The price is below the Senkou Span B line, and a trendline is still not possible to establish. Thus, we will only consider the downward trend complete after the Senkou Span B line is overcome. Without the signing of a memorandum between Tehran and Washington, it will be difficult for the euro to rise above this line.

On the 5-minute timeframe, a first sell signal was generated during the American trading session, when the price bounced from the 1.1657-1.1666 area. Within a couple of hours, the price reached the 1.1615-1.1625 area. Additionally, a buy signal was generated on Tuesday following a bounce from the 1.1615-1.1625 area, which also yielded profits for traders. Despite the flat movement, two trades could be opened, both of which would be profitable.

Analysis of EUR/USD 4H:

On the 4-hour timeframe within the ICT trading system, the price generated a buy signal in a "bullish" order block last week, and on Monday, a new bullish FVG formed and received a response. However, on Tuesday, the geopolitical situation sharply worsened again, and the signing of the memorandum that Trump has been discussing every hour and a half is once again on the brink of collapse. Therefore, further growth of the euro did not occur. Currently, there are no new patterns, and the CHOCH line has not been surpassed to break the downward trend.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a downward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense but has not worsened, and Washington and Tehran may, in theory, sign a preliminary agreement. If no new signs of escalation emerge in the Middle East and the memorandum is indeed signed, the dollar will begin to lose ground. However, we are currently observing the opposite situation.

For May 28, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1686) and Kijun-sen (1.1620). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set your stop-loss orders to breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Thursday, Christine Lagarde will speak in the Eurozone—this will be the first interesting event of the week. In the U.S., reports on durable goods orders and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) will be published. We cannot say that these are highly important reports. Most likely, they will not lead to a conclusion of the sideways movement.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.1542 if the price consolidates below the 1.1615-1.1625 area. Long positions can be opened if the price bounces from the 1.1615-1.1625 area, targeting the 1.1657-1.1666 area and the Senkou Span B line. On the 4-hour timeframe, there are no relevant patterns, and the current situation on the hourly timeframe is flat.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Thick red lines around which movement may conclude; they are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Lines from the Ichimoku indicator moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe; they are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels: Thin red lines from which the price previously bounced; they are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• CHOCH: Break in trend structure.
• Liquidity: Liquidity, Stop Loss, and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG: Price Inefficiency Area. Prices pass through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, prices tend to return and react from such areas, continuing the main trend.
• IFVG: Inverted Price Inefficiency Area. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it; instead, it impulsively breaks through and then tests from the other side.
• OB: Order Block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position aimed at taking liquidity to form their position in the opposite direction.