26.05.202611:45 Analisis Forex & Kajian: The US Is Unwilling to Reach an Agreement with Iran (EUR/USD and the Dollar Index Continue Trading Within Ranges)

Recent developments suggest that the United States has no genuine intention of reaching a deal with Iran and thereby restoring peace in the Middle East. Its actions are aimed both at deceiving the opposing side and at demonstrating an openly two-faced approach.

Thus, it became known today, Tuesday, that the United States has resumed military operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Several armed Iranian boats were attacked, resulting in casualties. All of this points to the fact that Donald Trump, pursuing a contradictory policy in which he continuously speaks about peace while simultaneously refusing to negotiate with Tehran on mutually beneficial terms, intends to achieve his previously stated goals by any means necessary.

It is no longer a secret that the dynamics of oil futures prices are the key driver for financial markets, as the cost of energy resources is directly linked to inflation prospects and, consequently, to potential interest rate hikes.

Another factor continues to push markets back and forth — uncertainty, which the American president consistently amplifies. The United States, through its leader, appears to be doing everything possible to confuse and pressure the Iranian side. Lacking the ability — at least for now — to launch a full-scale attack on Iran again, Washington is instead conducting verbal attacks against Tehran, attempting to force it into accepting unfavorable conditions.

The continuation of this situation, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, will keep markets under pressure and maintain asset prices within sideways trading ranges. This can be observed in oil futures, gold, the U.S. dollar on the Forex market, and cryptocurrencies.

What Can Be Expected in the Markets Today?

Much will depend on how U.S. markets open today and how American investors and traders operating through domestic brokers assess the current situation. As long as uncertainty surrounding the negotiations persists, restrained market activity can be expected.

Daily Forecast

EUR/USD

The pair remains within the 1.1590–1.1660 level amid uncertainty surrounding the resolution of the Middle East crisis. It may rise toward the 1.1660 level and then reverse downward toward 1.1590 if the market does not receive a new wave of optimism. The 1.1654 level may serve as a selling point.

USDX

The U.S. Dollar Index is also likely to continue trading within the 98.90–99.40 level. After rising toward 99.40, it may reverse and decline toward 98.90. The 99.34 level may serve as a selling point.