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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed somewhat. There is still no indication that the upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart), which began in January of last year, has been canceled. However, the trend structure has now taken on a corrective form.
In the long term, a wave C formation can be expected, with its low likely positioned below the low of wave A. At the moment, it is difficult to believe in such a strong decline of the euro, but the first quarter of 2026 showed that geopolitics can work wonders and reverse trends.
On the smaller timeframe, I can identify a classic three-wave upward corrective structure. After this structure was completed, a new downward trend segment began forming, which logically should be impulsive in nature.
If this assumption is correct, we can expect the formation of a five-wave structure within wave C of the higher order, with targets below the 1.1400 level. Are there informational reasons to expect such strong dollar strengthening? In my opinion, at the moment — no.
Monday showed that Tehran and Washington may return to the negotiating table, which reduces the likelihood of further U.S. dollar strengthening.
The EUR/USD pair declined by just 10 basis points on Wednesday, and the euro's weakening is slowing down. The euro has now been falling for seven consecutive days, so at least a small pause should occur soon.
Today's news background was rather weak and mixed. There were no important economic releases, while geopolitical developments will be discussed in separate reviews. Therefore, in this article we will focus on statements made by ECB officials Olli Rehn and Philip Lane.
The head of the Finnish central bank stated on Wednesday that the eurozone is on the verge of a stagflationary shock, meaning tighter monetary policy may not be the best step for the European regulator.
Stagflation means simultaneous economic slowdown and accelerating inflation. It should be recalled that reducing inflation requires tighter ECB policy, while stimulating economic growth requires lower interest rates. Therefore, ECB policymakers will soon face a dilemma very similar to the one confronting the Federal Reserve for more than a year already: maintain control over inflation or support economic growth.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that weakening domestic demand (due to high inflation) complicates the adjustment of monetary policy. Since policy easing is currently out of the question, Mr. Lane was referring to decisions regarding interest rate hikes.
Based on all of the above, the ECB and the Bank of England may, contrary to common expectations, keep rates unchanged at their June meetings. Of course, it is still too early to say this with certainty, but statements from ECB Governing Council members point in that direction.
For the euro, this is negative news, and demand for the currency may continue to decline.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a long-term upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a corrective structure.
The corrective a-b-c wave pattern appears complete. Therefore, wave 3 or wave c is currently developing, potentially as part of a larger wave C. The entire wave C (if the current wave count is correct) could finish much lower than the 1.1400 level.
However, such a scenario would require strong geopolitical support. Otherwise, the downward wave structure may take the form of an a-b-c correction and complete near the 1.1578 level.
On the larger scale, an upward trend segment is visible, followed by the formation of a corrective wave structure. In the near future, wave C formation is expected with targets near 1.1352, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
After the completion of the A-B-C structure, a new long-term upward trend may begin.
* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.
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