19.05.202618:08 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on May 18th (U.S. Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3397 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

The British pound showed a modest decline following disappointing macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom. News that the country's unemployment rate and the number of unemployed both increased beyond economists' forecasts triggered a mild sell-off in the British currency, though no panic emerged. All of this points to growing problems in the labor market, which could negatively affect consumer spending and overall economic growth.

The upcoming U.S. statistical reports in the second half of the day are unlikely to have a significant impact on the currency market. In particular, only data on changes in pending home sales in the United States is expected. In the case of strong statistics, the dollar may attempt another rise against the pound, but the main fundamental driver for market movement will likely come from remarks by Federal Open Market Committee member Christopher Waller.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1:

Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches the 1.3418 area (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3454 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3454, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level. Pound growth today can only be expected after weak U.S. data.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3391 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a bullish market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3418 and 1.3454 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1:

I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below the 1.3391 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3351 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Pressure on the pound will return today if strong U.S. data is released.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3418 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3391 and 1.3351 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.