19.05.202618:04 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on May 18th (U.S. Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1634 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

It is clear that the short-term optimism generated by Mr. Trump's election promises turned out to be an illusion that faded under the pressure of geopolitical problems, resulting in euro selling during the first half of the day. The energy crisis and high inflation continue to pressure risk assets, leaving the euro vulnerable and reducing demand for it. Until these fundamental problems are resolved, it is difficult to expect significant growth in demand for the European currency.

Today, we will see data that may shed light on developments in the U.S. housing market, specifically the change in pending home sales. This indicator, often referred to as the Pending Home Sales Index, serves as a barometer of market sentiment and a leading indicator of future trends in the housing sector. A decrease or increase in this indicator may reflect weaker or stronger buyer activity, as well as the level of seller confidence in closing transactions quickly. Strong data could support further gains in the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1:

Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.1634 area (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1671. At 1.1671, I plan to exit long positions and also open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. Euro growth today can only be expected after weak U.S. data.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1612 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a bullish market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1634 and 1.1671 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1612 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1579, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if strong U.S. data is released.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1634 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1612 and 1.1579 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.