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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the British currency on Monday and consolidated above the 1.3349 and 1.3408 levels. Thus, today the upward movement may continue toward the resistance levels of 1.3454–1.3466 and 1.3526–1.3539. A consolidation below 1.3408 would favor the U.S. dollar and a moderate decline toward the support level of 1.3349–1.3355.
The wave structure changed to bearish last week. The latest completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few points, while the latest downward wave confidently broke below the previous low. Geopolitics is currently supporting the bears, as the market still has not seen the signing of even a temporary memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. At the moment, the ceasefire remains in place, but the situation is shifting toward escalation and a prolonged confrontation.
The news background on Monday supported bullish traders, as reports emerged about continued negotiations between Iran and the U.S., as well as possible concessions from Washington. These concessions are unlikely to be enough to produce a breakthrough in negotiations, but the sides are nevertheless moving forward, albeit at a turtle's pace. This morning, unemployment and wage reports from the UK brought the bulls back down to earth. Contrary to forecasts, the unemployment rate rose to 5% in March, while wage growth accelerated to 4.1%. It is fortunate that the economic backdrop still attracts little market attention; otherwise, the British pound could have resumed its decline. Since traders are paying little attention to economic data, today's trading will depend primarily on geopolitics. If more encouraging headlines emerge during the day, the bulls may continue their offensive.
However, as early as tomorrow, market attention could shift back to economic data. The UK will release its April inflation report, and according to forecasts, inflation may slow rather than accelerate, which would be logical under the current energy market conditions. Thus, the British pound faces another test on Wednesday. If inflation slows, then tightening of the Bank of England's monetary policy in June will no longer be expected.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327 and reversed in favor of the pound, rising toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3429. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and the resumption of a decline toward 1.3327. An emerging bearish divergence increases the likelihood of a rebound from 1.3429. A consolidation above 1.3429 would allow traders to expect further gains for the pound.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 17,032, while short positions decreased by 3,817. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 79,000 versus 123,000. For six consecutive weeks in February and March, non-commercial traders actively increased their short positions and reduced longs, creating a significant imbalance between long and short positions. Bears have dominated in recent months, which surprises no one given the geopolitical backdrop.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent news suggests that a full ceasefire remains far away, and the conflict could resume at any moment.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and UK:
The May 19 economic calendar contains four entries, three of which have already been released. The influence of economic data on market sentiment may remain absent for the rest of Tuesday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling opportunities may arise today if the hourly chart shows a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. Alternatively, selling is possible after a close below 1.3408.
Buying opportunities were available after a close above the 1.3349–1.3355 level, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3454. Long positions may remain open above the 1.3408 level.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158–1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866–1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.
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