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On Monday, silver (XAG/USD) reached the round level of $77.00. This precious metal is stabilizing after a significant sell-off that occurred last week. The recovery in quotes is occurring amid moderate US dollar weakness, driven by renewed optimism about potential diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran.
Market sentiment improved after an Iranian Foreign Ministry representative confirmed that discussions with Washington are ongoing. According to Iranian officials, Tehran and Washington are considering a recent peace proposal, and technical consultations involving Iran and Oman are focusing on ensuring shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz.
The easing of tensions in the Middle East has reduced demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. The US Dollar Index (DXY) pulled back to the level of 99.00 after reaching intraday highs, providing some support to silver and other precious metals.
However, the recovery in silver prices is constrained by high yields on global bonds and inflationary concerns driven by elevated energy prices. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds remains near 4.6%—a level close to yearly highs—as investors continue to adjust their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The recent rise in oil prices has heightened concerns that inflation may remain elevated for an extended period, prompting market participants to revise their forecasts for aggressive Fed rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch data, traders are increasingly considering the possibility that the Fed may need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy this year.
Rising yields generally reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets, including silver. OCBC strategist Christopher Wong noted that the recent spike in US yields and the strengthening dollar have offset some of the momentum that previously supported silver prices. He added that market sentiment remains unstable until yields show more confident stabilization.
Additional pressure on the silver market is being created by India's recent decision to significantly restrict imports of the metal, aimed at reducing burdens on the Indian rupee. UBS analysts have also recently revised their forecasts for global investment demand for silver, citing weakening industrial demand and increased supply from mining companies.
Despite these unfavorable trends, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement in market sentiment have allowed silver prices to demonstrate a moderate recovery at the beginning of the week.
From a technical perspective, the oscillators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in negative territory, indicating weakness among buyers. For buyers to gain strength over sellers, they need to overcome the 100-day SMA. However, on a larger scale, the 200-day SMA is slightly upward-sloping, suggesting potential for long-term growth.
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