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On Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair has surpassed the round level of 1.3700 and attempted to break through the 50-day SMA, paving the way for further upward movement.
Investors are trying to find a balance between the sustained strength of the US dollar and the support the Canadian dollar receives from high oil prices. Bulls in the USD/CAD pair continue to struggle amid rising US Treasury yields and shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy.
Concerns about inflation remain on the financial markets' radar. The geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the fruitless negotiations between the US and Iran help maintain high oil prices, which, in turn, intensify concerns about more persistent global inflation. This situation encourages key central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies longer than previously anticipated.
In the US, the April Producer Price Index (PPI) significantly accelerated to 6% year-on-year (compared to 4.3% previously), reaching a four-year high and substantially exceeding market forecasts. The core PPI, excluding volatile components, rose by 5.2% year-on-year compared to 4% in March. These figures followed the publication on Tuesday of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which already showed higher-than-expected inflation.
The bond market reacted immediately. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 4.49%, strengthening the dollar's position. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, approached 98.50.
Against this backdrop, markets significantly lowered expectations of potential Fed rate cuts. Now investors anticipate that monetary policy will remain unchanged for an extended period, and some traders are beginning to price in the risk of another rate hike by the end of the year.
Nevertheless, the Canadian dollar continues to receive support from stable oil prices, as oil is a key component of Canada's exports. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices remain close to $97 per barrel, strengthening Canada's trading position and limiting further growth in the USD/CAD pair.
Investors are also eagerly awaiting the publication of the Bank of Canada's meeting minutes. Market participants should look for additional details in this document on geopolitical risks, the impacts of rising oil prices, and possible internal disagreements within the Governing Council regarding future interest rate changes.
There is a likelihood that the Canadian dollar remains undervalued relative to its fair value assessment. However, the bank notes that the widening spreads of short-term interest rates in favor of the US continue to support the US dollar in the short term.
In the table below, you can see the percentage change of the Canadian dollar against major currencies as of Wednesday. The most notable positions were observed against the euro.
From a technical perspective, bulls are gradually gaining strength, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has slightly moved into positive territory. The nearest obstacle is the 100-day SMA, before reaching the level of 1.3725, after which bulls will gain more confidence. However, if prices return below the 20-day SMA, bears will likely overpower the bulls again.
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