14.05.202600:50 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD. Price Analysis. Forecast. Will the Bank of England Maintain a Tight Policy?

According to a Reuters survey published on Wednesday, the Bank of England is likely to maintain its cautious stance, given that inflation remains above target. Of the 56 surveyed economists, 27 predict the central bank will keep the interest rate at 3.75% for the entire year; 7 anticipate at least one rate cut, while 22 expect at least one rate hike.

This divergent array of forecasts highlights ongoing uncertainty about the UK's economic situation: the disinflation process is proceeding slowly, and risks to economic growth remain significant.

Additionally, the Reuters survey results indicate that average inflation in the UK for 2026 will stand at 3.2%, consistent with the April forecast. At the same time, growth forecasts have become more optimistic: GDP is expected to grow by 0.8% over the year, up from a prior estimate of 0.7%.

These expectations bolster the view that the BoE may maintain its tight monetary policy longer to curb inflationary pressures, even amid some signs of stabilization in economic activity.

The market reacted cautiously to this data.

At the time of writing, the British pound has not undergone significant changes: the GBP/USD pair was trading at 1.3516, down 0.17% for the day. Also, it is worth noting that oscillators remain on the positive side, and the pair held support at the 100-day SMA. For the bulls to achieve further confident growth, they need to overcome the 20-day SMA.

In the table below, you can see the percentage change in the British pound against major currencies for the day, with the largest rise observed against the New Zealand dollar.