11.05.202613:20 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on May 11th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Euro

A price test at 1.1762 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

In the near term, data on U.S. existing home sales will be released. This indicator serves as a barometer of the housing sector's health and consumer sentiment. Analysts expect the report to show either a decline or no change in sales volumes compared to previous quarters. The likely reasons for this include high mortgage interest rates, inflationary pressure reducing purchasing power, and a shortage of available properties on the market. Any deviation from these forecasts will affect investors and the real estate sector as a whole, potentially triggering a reaction in the currency market. A decrease in transactions may indicate an economic slowdown, while growth in existing home sales often signals consumer confidence and financial system stability.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro purchases can be considered if the price reaches around 1.1780 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1812. At 1.1812, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Euro growth today is only likely in case of weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1763 level, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward 1.1780 and 1.1812.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1763 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1726, where I intend to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure is likely to return with strong U.S. data.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1780 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1763 and 1.1726 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line — entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line — estimated Take Profit level or area to manually secure profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line — entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line — estimated Take Profit level or area to manually secure profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator — trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Note: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper risk management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing intraday strategy.