11.05.202600:52 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Central Banks Continue to Crave Gold!

Although the rise in gold prices appears to have temporarily stalled, central banks continue to send a clear message to the market: they remain systematic buyers and use periods of price declines to increase their positions, even amid heightened economic uncertainty. Fresh data from the World Gold Council shows that in March, banks collectively acted as net sellers, reducing their reserves by 30 tons, largely due to large-scale sales from Turkey and Russia.

Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop for the precious metals market remains positive, as several countries continued to increase their reserves during the price correction. Among the most active buyers were Poland, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, while China continued its prolonged streak of gold accumulation. For investors, the important factor is not the short-term pressure from sellers in a given month, but the sustained trend that has developed over the past several years.

The purchase of gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic policy component, driven by the desire for reserve diversification, geopolitical risks, and a consistent reduction in reliance on the US dollar. At the center of this dynamic remains China. The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months. Although the country does not appear to focus solely on short-term price fluctuations, available data indicate that purchases are activated during periods of relative market weakness.

In March, the Chinese central bank purchased 8 tons of gold—the highest monthly purchase volume since December 2024—made while prices remained approximately 16% below the January 2026 highs. Despite the significance of Chinese demand, a relatively low share of gold in the structure of official reserves remains an important long-term factor. According to the World Gold Council, this currently stands at around 15% of total global reserve assets, indicating substantial potential for further reallocation.

Even amid high prices, the market continues to attract new participants. Kosovo's decision to include gold in its reserves for the first time clearly demonstrates that even smaller central banks are striving to enhance the stability of their assets through investments in precious metals. The expansion of the buyer base confirms that the significance of gold in the global financial system is not diminishing but, on the contrary, is gradually strengthening.

Particular attention should be paid to the changing behavioral patterns of central banks: their demand is becoming less sensitive to price levels than in previous market cycles. Analysts believe this indicates a shift in focus from short-term price valuation to long-term strategic objectives. As a result, a so-called "structural bottom" in gold prices is forming.

While speculative activity and flows into ETFs can still amplify short-term volatility, demand from the official sector serves as a stabilizing factor during market corrections. This, however, does not rule out the possibility of deeper declines.

Nevertheless, as long as central banks continue to view gold as a key component of their reserve strategy, significant downturns will likely be accompanied by a recovery in sovereign demand. Currently, the market seems to be in a consolidation phase, awaiting new macroeconomic drivers. Meanwhile, banks continue to accumulate gold in the shadows—and this factor may become one of the key forces supporting prices through the end of 2026.