04.05.202613:45 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on May 4th (U.S. Session)

Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The test of the 156.91 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 30 points.

Amid reports of a possible Iranian attack on a U.S. military ship in the Strait of Hormuz area, the dollar resumed its rise while the Japanese yen weakened. A return of the USD/JPY pair to the 157.50 level could be a risky moment, as in recent days the Bank of Japan has repeatedly intervened at this level, conducting currency interventions and strengthening the yen.

In the second half of the day, attention will focus on U.S. factory orders data. An increase in orders may signal rising demand for goods, supporting economic recovery, which would strengthen the dollar and weaken the yen. Conversely, a decline may indicate slowing production and potential risks to economic growth.

Alongside macroeconomic data, a speech by Federal Open Market Committee member John Williams will have a significant impact. His statements are often seen as a precursor to future monetary policy. Investors will carefully analyze his remarks for signals regarding possible interest rate adjustments, plans for open market operations, or other measures aimed at controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. Particular interest will be in his assessment of the current inflation environment and outlook.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point is reached around 157.35 (green line on the chart), with a target of 158.29 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.29, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Growth in the pair today is likely if U.S. data is strong.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 156.99 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 157.35 and 158.29 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 156.99 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.95, where I will exit short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S. data is weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 157.35 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.99 and 155.95 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.