04.05.202608:03 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on May 4

The US dollar has regained strength against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets, suggesting cautious buying amid uncertainty in the Middle East.

Today, the European currency may receive support in the first half of the day. This could be boosted by the publication of important macroeconomic indicators. In particular, data on the Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone is expected to be released. Positive results for this indicator are traditionally interpreted by the market as a positive signal for the economy of the region, which, in turn, could strengthen the position of the euro.

Additionally, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index will shed light on investor sentiment. However, this indicator is expected to show negative dynamics, reflecting growing pessimism among market participants regarding the prospects of the European economy.

A significant event for the day will be the Eurogroup meeting. The discussions at this meeting could significantly impact markets. Special attention will be paid to the remarks from key figures, including the President of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. His comments on the situation in the Middle East, energy prices, and monetary policy could set the tone for the euro's further movement. Any hints at possible changes to interest rates or other support measures from the European Central Bank will be closely analyzed by investors.

Regarding the pound, the first half of the day looks like an opportunity for sterling buyers. The absence of significant macroeconomic reports from the UK removes the potential for negative surprises that could cloud trader sentiment. This creates a favorable environment for proponents of a stronger pound to take initiative and attempt to regain bullish momentum for the pair.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the most appropriate.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout at 1.1737, which may lead to an increase in the euro to the levels of 1.1753 and 1.1773;
• Sell on a breakout at 1.1720, which may lead to a decline in the euro to the levels of 1.1685 and 1.1657;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout at 1.3605, which may lead to an increase in the pound to the levels of 1.3632 and 1.3668;
• Sell on a breakout at 1.3580, which may lead to a decline in the pound to the levels of 1.3550 and 1.3510;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout at 157.05, which may lead to an increase in the dollar to the levels of 157.40 and 157.93;
• Sell on a breakout at 156.60, which may lead to dollar sell-offs to the levels of 156.30 and 156.03;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1738 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1717 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3598 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3570 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.7222 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.7202 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3598 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3579 on a return to this level;