30.04.202614:07 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – April 30th

The British pound, euro, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar were traded today using the Momentum strategy. I did not use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Weak eurozone GDP growth data for the first quarter put pressure on the euro, but did not trigger a large-scale sell-off. Despite the initial slowdown in economic growth, inflationary pressure in the eurozone continues to increase. This creates a dilemma for the European Central Bank, which must decide today how to balance risks to economic growth and price stability.

In addition, market participants will closely watch U.S. first-quarter GDP data in the second half of the day. This report should provide a clear picture of the overall trajectory of economic growth, highlighting potential slowdowns or, conversely, acceleration. Equally important is the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, one of the Federal Reserve's key indicators of inflationary pressure. Understanding how this index has changed will be crucial for forecasting future monetary policy. Other related indicators also need to be analyzed, including changes in consumer spending, which reflect consumer activity, and changes in personal income.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1705 may lead to growth toward 1.1727 and 1.1753;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1685 may lead to a decline toward 1.1670 and 1.1645;

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3515 may lead to growth toward 1.3540 and 1.3575;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3490 may lead to a decline toward 1.3465 and 1.3440;

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.39 may lead to growth toward 159.60 and 159.83;
• Selling on a breakout below 159.13 may lead to a decline toward 158.87 and 158.57;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.1715 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.1666 followed by a return to this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3532 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3469 followed by a return to this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 0.7159 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 0.7129 followed by a return to this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3676 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3652 followed by a return to this level.