30.04.202606:29 Analisis Forex & Kajian: What to Pay Attention to on April 30? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are many macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday. However, yesterday's market behavior showed that it is prepared to ignore even central bank meetings. This has been the case for more than two months now, so the entire set of macroeconomic data on Thursday may also be easily disregarded. We will highlight only the most important reports of the day: GDP for the first quarter in the U.S. and the EU, as well as inflation in the EU. These reports have some chance of resonating with traders.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Thursday, the meetings of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank should be noted; however, no significant decisions are expected, as the market is confident that both central banks will keep key rates unchanged. Just the day before, the Fed made a similar decision, with the market reacting minimally, even though Jerome Powell made several important statements. Both central banks, like the Federal Reserve, are positioned to maintain a wait-and-see approach, despite Donald Trump and Iran not even agreeing on a second round of negotiations, and the Strait of Hormuz may remain closed for a very long time. Yesterday, oil prices rose to $120 per barrel, which only signals a further surge in global inflation. Thus, even at the BoE and ECB meetings, market reactions may be weak and not significantly affect the technical picture for either currency pair.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to astonish with its level of uncertainty, prompting central banks to hesitate before making important monetary policy decisions. The war in the Middle East may resume if a deal between Iran and the U.S. is not signed. A deal cannot be signed if Iran does not even agree to a second round of negotiations. Meanwhile, the ceasefire continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

General Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may show high volatility, but given the current circumstances, the likelihood is low. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3476-1.3489. The correction for both currency pairs continues, but the pound is flat while the euro is in a downward movement.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.