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While oil prices continue their rapid rise amid the U.S.-Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the United Arab Emirates has announced it will exit OPEC next month, a major blow to the group and raising doubts about its future.
Experts note that the UAE's departure from OPEC on May 1, after 6 decades of membership, marks the culmination of years of tension in relations with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia over oil production policies and competition for regional political influence. This is also the latest evidence of how the conflict is reshaping global energy markets.
The UAE's decision has not caused stress in global energy markets, as they have been on edge for the past two months. While the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is already placing tangible pressure on supplies and driving up prices, the exit of one of the key producers from the oil cartel could exacerbate this situation. The lack of a unified policy and coordination among the remaining OPEC members may lead to greater volatility and unpredictability in oil prices.
This step by the UAE may be linked to its desire to pursue a more independent oil policy that aligns with its economic interests and strategic goals. The country may see more opportunities for growth and development beyond the traditional framework of OPEC membership, especially amid a changing global energy landscape.
Thus, the future of OPEC appears uncertain. The loss of a major player like the UAE could undermine the organization's authority and its ability to influence global oil prices. This could lead to increased competition among oil-producing countries and weaken the mechanism for regulating supply.
"This decision was made after a thorough and lengthy analysis of all our strategies," the UAE stated. "In our view, the decision is timely because it will not have a significant impact on the market."
Let me remind you that the UAE was the third-largest producer in OPEC, accounting for about 12% of the group's total supply.
"We believe that the shortage caused by the war will require flexibility in responding to market needs without the constraints imposed by the collective decision-making process within the entire group," the statement said.
As noted above, the exit of a key member from the organization is a significant blow to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as a victory for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticized the group for attempting to support oil prices.
Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will enable targeting $106.80, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The next target will be around $113.30. In the event of a decline in oil, bears will attempt to regain control at $92.50. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a serious blow to bull positions and push oil down to a low of $86.67, with a potential drop to $81.37.
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