23.04.202609:47 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Market rallies as investors see peak tension passed

The market prices in everything. If the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are hitting new record highs, investors must know something. Yes, US–Iran talks collapsed, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and oil prices are elevated. Yet the crowd is confidently buying the dips in equities, betting on strong corporate profits. Attractive post-March valuation metrics, including lower forward P/Es, are playing a supporting role, and not only those.

S&P 500 and global equity index performance

The armed conflict in the Middle East is not over, but investors are convinced that its worst is behind us. The White House has extended the ceasefire indefinitely. Donald Trump says he will not return immediately to bombing. That is already seen as good news.

When the US president sends mixed signals, markets are left guessing. Will talks happen, or were they invented? Will Trump order mass strikes, or will he back down? In such circumstances, investors naturally revert to familiar patterns — for example, the prolonged conflict in Ukraine. The longer a conflict drags on, the more investors adapt.

It is quite possible that the same will happen this time. The scale of supply loss may differ, but demand destruction from high oil prices, sales from strategic reserves, the search for workaround routes, and the use of Russian oil currently on tankers smooth out the negative impact. Over time, markets will accommodate the geopolitical factor and get back to their core drivers — expectations for strong corporate earnings or the promise of AI technology.

Tech returned to favor after falling out of fashion earlier in the year. A few impressive earnings reports, and investors are ready to pile back into Big Tech. Of S&P 500 companies that have reported Q1 results so far, 80% beat earnings estimates. Wall Street analysts still expect double-digit EPS growth. So why not buy the dip?

Dynamics of US stock indices

Markets feared that a spike in oil to record levels would trigger a global recession. Yet Brent is far from the highs seen at the start of the Ukraine conflict. Moreover, emerging-market oil inventories have so far been sufficient to avert the worst-case outcome.

Yes, the worst case can still play out — especially with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — but new workaround routes will emerge, and additional releases from strategic reserves are likely.

Technically, the S&P 500 opened with a gap up on the daily chart. The broad index moved higher with conviction and appears ready to re-establish the uptrend. In these conditions, it makes sense to orient toward long positions with targets around 7,200 and 7,300.