20.04.202600:33 Analisis Forex & Kajian: U.S. Dollar. Weekly Preview

Next week, there will not be many important events or economic reports in the U.S. However, the market continues to pay less attention to economic indicators than one would like. Geopolitics remains at the forefront, but there has been so much discussion about geopolitics today that I will not repeat it. In my opinion, both instruments are poised to form a downward wave that could mark the first wave of a new downward segment of the trend. It is difficult to say at this point whether this segment will be impulsive or corrective; this will depend on the developments in the Middle East. The situation in the Middle East may revert to the state it was two weeks ago, in which case demand for the U.S. currency will rise, aligning with the current wave structure.

Among notable reports, I can only highlight retail sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. As noted, there will be very few important reports, so the U.S. news background is unlikely to have any substantial impact on movements in the currency market. Therefore, despite any reluctance, we will have to closely monitor every statement from Donald Trump, every news update on the negotiations, and every piece of information from Iran. The worse the situation develops, the higher the likelihood that the market will return to buying the safe-haven dollar. Of course, the dollar is unlikely to fall below the 32 level against the pound, but I want to emphasize that no trader can predict how events in the Middle East will unfold. Therefore, anything is possible.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (see the lower picture) and, in the short term, is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set looks quite complete and may take on a more complex, elongated form only if a stable and long-term ceasefire is established between Iran, the U.S., Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that a new downward wave set may begin from the current positions. Or at least a corrective wave may develop.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. Now we see a clear three-wave upward structure on the charts, which may already be coming to an end. If this is indeed the case, we can expect the formation of at least one downward wave (presumably a "d" wave). The upward segment of the trend could take on a five-wave form, but this will require the conflict in the Middle East to diminish rather than rekindle. Thus, the base scenario for the coming days is a decline into the 34-figure area or slightly lower. Everything will once again depend on geopolitical factors.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play back and often result in changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no 100% certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.