13.04.202612:29 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – April 13th

Today, only the British pound could be traded using the Momentum strategy. There was also a suitable Mean Reversion setup for the Australian dollar, but the expected reversal never materialized.

Volatility in the currency market leaves much to be desired. Traders accustomed to dynamic trading have found themselves at a disadvantage. Their strategies, built on quick reactions to news, failed to deliver the expected profits, as sellers seemed to disappear after reacting to the news of the failed U.S.–Iran negotiations. Attempts to find hidden trends in minor price movements were doomed to fail.

Next, we have the U.S. Existing Home Sales report, which is unlikely to have a strong impact on the market. Although this data is an important indicator of the health of the U.S. economy, in the current environment it will likely take a back seat to more significant events. Nevertheless, analysts will closely monitor any deviations from forecasts, as they may provide indirect clues about consumer sentiment and the overall economic climate.

Another important event will be the meeting of the International Monetary Fund. It will be particularly interesting in the context of geopolitical developments in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Amid rising tensions in the region, any statements or consultations within the IMF framework could significantly impact global financial markets, especially energy prices. The meeting is expected to address issues related to restoring stability in affected regions, as well as measures to mitigate the economic consequences of the conflict.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1705 ? target 1.1738 and 1.1769
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1675 ? target 1.1645 and 1.1620

For GBP/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3444 ? target 1.3476 and 1.3512
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3412 ? target 1.3350 and 1.3317

For USD/JPY:

• Buy on a breakout above 159.83 ? target 160.02 and 160.24
• Sell on a breakout below 159.60 ? target 159.36 and 159.13

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.1703 and a return below it
• Look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.1677 and a return above it

For GBP/USD:

• Look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.3449 and a return below it
• Look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3405 and a return above it

For AUD/USD:

• Look for sells after a failed breakout above 0.7069 and a return below it
• Look for buys after a failed breakout below 0.7032 and a return above it

For USD/CAD:

• Look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.3851 and a return below it
• Look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3832 and a return above it