13.04.202600:57 Analisis Forex & Kajian: British Pound. Weekly Preview

As a rule, in each "Weekly Preview" review, I list all the most important events that may influence the movement of the instrument. However, it makes no sense to list events right now. First, there will be a few economic events next week. Second, there will be even fewer important events. Third, the market continues to ignore most of the economic flow. Therefore, I will focus only on the speeches by Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey. The presidents of the European Central Bank and Bank of England may announce whether central banks are ready to resume tightening monetary policy amid rising inflation, which may have a restrained impact on market sentiment. However, I do not believe this information can significantly influence price movements.

Unfortunately, everything will depend again on events unfolding in the Middle East. As I mentioned, negotiations in Islamabad have failed, but the parties have agreed to resume them in the future. In fact, no side may adhere to the ceasefire, as it was introduced only to conduct negotiations. I believe that new meetings between the American and Iranian delegations will also yield no results, as their positions are on opposite sides of the galaxy. Therefore, these negotiations exist only to show the world that we are ready for a ceasefire, but our opponent refuses to concede.

Donald Trump is now planning to block the flow of Iranian oil to the East, and earlier, he indicated the possibility of capturing the island of Kharg. I do not rule out that in the near future, American military forces will carry out both operations. Or the one that seems most effective in the forecasts. One way or another, Washington wants to cut Iran off from cash flows, which is feeling quite good, selling its oil at exorbitant prices and in double volumes against the backdrop of an overall deficit. Well, let's see where this Washington strategy leads. In my opinion, it will not lead to the end of the conflict.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward segment of the trend (lower image), while in the short term, it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may take on a more complex, extended form only if a sustainable ceasefire is established between Iran, the U.S., Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that a new downward wave set may begin to form from the current positions.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. We now see a clear five-wave downward structure on the charts with an extension in the third wave. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not provoke a new crash of the instrument in the near future, we can expect the formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound could rise to levels of 1.3511 and 1.3594, corresponding to 50.0% and 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale. If a ceasefire is reached, the corrective segment of the trend could turn impulsive.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no confidence in market developments, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.