06.04.202612:54 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – April 6th

The British pound, euro, and Australian dollar could be traded using the Momentum strategy. I did not trade anything using Mean Reversion.

The euro, pound, and other risk assets continued to rise during the European session. Apparently, many market participants are still encouraged by the possibility that the US and Iran may sign an agreement to suspend hostilities for 45 days. This geopolitical rally is expected to put pressure on the dollar, as it reduces uncertainty and promotes a calmer trading environment. However, it is important to remember that geopolitical tensions remain a variable capable of influencing markets. Any signs of escalation in the conflict could quickly shift trader sentiment and lead to a sell-off in risk assets. Nevertheless, at the moment, positive factors clearly outweigh the negatives.

In the second half of the day, economic data releases are expected that could significantly impact the currency market. In particular, the US ISM Services PMI for March will be published. This indicator is one of the key measures of the US economy, reflecting dynamics in one of its largest sectors. Preliminary analyst expectations point to potentially positive results. The index is expected to remain above 50, which is already a good sign. If the actual data exceeds forecasts, it could strengthen the case for maintaining a tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Strong data from the services sector signals stable economic growth and strengthening consumer demand, which in turn could even support higher interest rates.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1563 ? targets 1.1593 and 1.1628
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1540 ? targets 1.1510 and 1.1480

For GBP/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3250 ? targets 1.3282 and 1.3317
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3215 ? targets 1.3182 and 1.3162

For USD/JPY:

• Buy on a breakout above 159.53 ? targets 159.74 and 159.94
• Sell on a breakout below 159.29 ? targets 159.09 and 158.85

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.1575, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.1535, on a return to this level

For GBP/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3274, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3231, on a return to this level

For AUD/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 0.6951, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 0.6917, on a return to this level

For USD/CAD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3928, on a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3905, on a return to this level