31.03.202613:06 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – March 31st

Due to low market volatility, only the Canadian dollar was traded using the Mean Reversion strategy, but a proper reversal move never materialized. I did not take any trades using the Momentum strategy.

According to the data, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index in March came in at 2.5%, compared to a forecast of 2.6%. Despite this, the strong rise in inflation is becoming a supportive factor for the currency, as it makes it less attractive for speculative selling. However, it is worth noting that although the actual figure was slightly below expectations, it remains at a level that may cause some caution for the European Central Bank. An inflation rate of 2.5% exceeds the ECB's target of 2%. In the context of the global economic situation, if this trend continues, such data from the Eurozone may be perceived as a signal of a shift toward higher interest rates.

Later today, several important macroeconomic indicators are expected, which could have a significant impact on financial markets. In particular, the US consumer confidence index will be released, which is one of the key barometers of the US economy. Positive consumer confidence data usually indicates growing optimism among the population regarding current and future economic conditions.

Investors will also focus on the Chicago PMI. This manufacturing index is an early indicator of business activity in the Chicago region—one of the largest industrial hubs in the United States. Readings above 50 typically signal an expansion in manufacturing activity.

In addition, speeches by two Federal Reserve representatives—Austan D. Goolsbee and Michael S. Barr—are scheduled throughout the day. Remarks by FOMC members, especially those on the Board of Governors, are always closely monitored by the markets. Their comments may provide valuable insights into policymakers' views on the current economic situation, inflation trends, and potential future monetary policy actions. Any hints of changes in the Fed's stance on interest rates or its future plans could trigger significant volatility across currency, equity, and commodity markets.

If the data comes in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1485 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1525 and 1.1555;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1450 may lead to a decline toward 1.1414 and 1.1384;

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3225 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3254 and 1.3280;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3190 may lead to a decline toward 1.3165 and 1.3131;

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 159.75 may lead to dollar growth toward 159.95 and 160.20;
• Selling on a breakout below 159.50 may lead to a decline toward 159.30 and 159.10;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1490, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1448, on a return back to this level;

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3235, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3185, on a return back to this level

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6876, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6838, on a return back to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3949, on a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3925, on a return back to this level;