30.03.202612:22 Analisis Forex & Kajian: XAU/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast

From a technical perspective, the market is showing signs of consolidation: the technical pattern indicates the need for confirmation of sustained buying momentum before one can confidently speak about the formation of a local bottom near the 200-day SMA—the lowest levels since November 2025, recorded earlier this month.

Gold's price movement last week can be interpreted as a bearish consolidation phase following a break below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). However, a strong rebound from the strategically important support near the 200-day SMA suggests caution when opening new short positions.

Technical oscillators continue to point to weakness in upward momentum. Thus, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below the signal line and stays in negative territory, and the histogram remains negative, confirming the dominance of downward dynamics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuates in the 30–35 range after exiting the oversold zone, indicating a weakening of selling pressure, although no signal of a trend reversal is observed yet.

The nearest resistance zone is located around the 100-day SMA—near $4,630. A firm consolidation above this level will open the way to the next target near $4,850, or the 20-day SMA, followed by another target around $4,967, or the 50-day SMA.

At the same time, local support is forming near $4,380, and its breakout increases the risk of a deeper decline toward the round level of $4,300, where the next key level for buyers is located.