27.03.202612:37 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – March 27th

Today, the Australian dollar was traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. I traded the euro and the British pound using Momentum.

In the second half of the day, we expect the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which will provide insight into how Americans assess the current economic situation and their prospects—especially amid the war with Iran. Strong data may support the dollar. Along with the sentiment index, inflation expectations data will also be released. Consumers' expectations regarding future inflation have a direct impact on their spending behavior and long-term investment decisions. Given the sharp rise in energy prices, this indicator could turn out to be quite negative.

In addition, speeches by FOMC members Thomas Barkin and Mary Daly are scheduled for the second half of the day. Their comments may shed light on the committee's current views on the state of the economy, inflation, and the outlook for monetary policy. FOMC members often use such speeches to shape market expectations. Attention will be focused on any hints regarding interest rate changes.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1540 may lead to a rise toward 1.1570 and 1.1600;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1515 may lead to a decline toward 1.1485 and 1.1448;

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3325 may lead to a rise toward 1.3345 and 1.3366;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3300 may lead to a decline toward 1.3280 and 1.3258;

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 159.94 may lead to a rise toward 160.21 and 160.49;
• Selling on a breakout below 159.74 may lead to a decline toward 159.53 and 159.29;

Mean Reversion strategy (pullback) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1535 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1501 followed by a return to this level;

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3333 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3283 followed by a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6916 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6880 followed by a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3863 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3840 followed by a return to this level;