26.03.202613:54 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on March 26th (U.S. Session)

Trade analysis and tips for trading the euro

The test of the 1.1551 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Statistics on lending and money supply in the eurozone did not change the existing balance of power in the market. Lending activity weakened slightly but remained at a restrained level. According to the latest data, the money supply continues to decline, though the pace of this decline is understandable. The data also showed that liquidity in the system remains high enough to support moderate economic growth; however, insufficient inflow of new funds into the real sector of the economy could slow long-term development.

In the second half of the day, market participants will likely focus on two key events: the release of data on initial jobless claims and a public speech by Lisa D. Cook, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee. Unemployment data is one of the most sensitive indicators reflecting the health of the labor market. Significant deviations from forecasts—either positive or negative—can trigger noticeable volatility in financial markets. At the same time, close attention will be paid to Lisa D. Cook's remarks. Investors will carefully analyze every word, looking for hints regarding inflation, economic growth, and, of course, the outlook for changes in the key interest rate.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1574 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1610. At 1.1610, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected after weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2:I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1551 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1574 and 1.1610 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1551 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1515, where I plan to exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1574 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1551 and 1.1515 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.