26.03.202613:17 Analisis Forex & Kajian: XAU/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to pull back from the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Amid the continued hawkish stance of global central banks and a strengthening US dollar—which traditionally puts pressure on non-yielding safe-haven assets—the potential for a strong recovery remains limited.

Despite statements by US President Donald Trump about a possible ceasefire, Iran has publicly rejected reports of progress in negotiations, emphasizing that there is no likelihood of reaching an agreement with the opposing side. Moreover, Tehran refused to accept the US 15-point ceasefire proposal, putting forward its own extensive conditions for resolving the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The deployment of additional US troops in the region increases the risks of further escalation, strengthening the dollar as the world's key reserve currency and putting downward pressure on gold.

At the same time, Iran's energy sector continues to face strain, while the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz supports rising oil prices. Higher oil prices intensify inflation concerns and reinforce expectations that major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, will maintain a tight monetary policy stance. The market has largely abandoned expectations of Fed rate cuts—on the contrary, forecasts of a possible rate hike by the end of the year are increasing.

Rising yields on US Treasury bonds further support the dollar and limit demand for gold. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains highly sensitive to geopolitical factors, and high volatility is expected to persist in the coming sessions—especially amid speculation about a potential US ground operation to take control of a key Iranian oil terminal on Kharg Island.

From a technical perspective, gold remains under pressure, with oscillators in negative territory. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exited the oversold zone, indicating a resumption of the decline. At the same time, the key 100-day and 200-day SMAs are sloping upward. This suggests that, in the broader view, gold is not prepared for significant losses, and the downward trend is likely to be short-term.