25.03.202612:38 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – March 25th

Today, the euro and the Australian dollar were traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not execute any trades using the Momentum strategy.

IFO data from Germany, somewhat unexpectedly, came in slightly better than economists' forecasts, which helped maintain demand for the euro but also kept intraday volatility low. Despite general expectations of a slowdown, the business climate index showed resilience, reflecting a certain level of optimism among German companies. This became a key factor supporting the euro amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The resilience of the German economy, supported by IFO data, creates conditions for stabilization, but further positive news regarding Iran and the Middle East will be needed for more confident euro growth.

In the second half of the day, U.S. current account balance figures and the import price index are expected. These macroeconomic indicators typically do not have a significant impact on financial markets unless they show substantial deviations from forecasts. Nevertheless, their release may briefly affect U.S. dollar quotes, adding a minor element to the overall market picture.

The current account balance reflects a country's transactions with the rest of the world in terms of goods, services, income, and unilateral transfers. A significant widening or narrowing of the deficit may signal changes in trade flows or investment activity. The import price index, in turn, is an indicator of inflationary processes related to imported goods and services. Its dynamics can provide insight into potential pressure on domestic prices and, consequently, influence expectations regarding future monetary policy.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1614 may lead to growth toward 1.1638 and 1.1669;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1585 may lead to a decline toward 1.1549 and 1.1519;

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3415 may lead to growth toward 1.3441 and 1.3476;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3385 may lead to a decline toward 1.3350 and 1.3325;

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 158.87 may lead to growth toward 159.18 and 159.47;
• Selling on a breakout below 158.57 may lead to a decline toward 158.28 and 157.93;

Mean Reversion strategy (pullback) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 1.1613 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 1.1579 followed by a return to this level;

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 1.3430 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 1.3375 followed by a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 0.6989 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 0.6957 followed by a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 1.3806 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 1.3778 followed by a return to this level;