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The EUR/USD pair continued trading with a bullish sentiment throughout Tuesday, but without growth. Consolidation above the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1577 and a subsequent rebound from this level allow expectations of further growth toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1696. A consolidation below the 1.1577 level will favor the U.S. dollar and a potential decline toward the Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.1440.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave broke the previous peak. Thus, the trend is currently continuing to shift toward bullish. The actions of Donald Trump in the Middle East have triggered large-scale military activity in the region involving a dozen countries, which supported the dollar as a "safe-haven" currency. However, this week Washington has moved toward reconciliation, putting pressure on the dollar.
On Tuesday, economic releases did not attract traders' attention, although business activity reports were published in Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States. The market traditionally ignored U.S. indices, as ISM indices carry more weight in America. European indices, meanwhile, showed neither clearly positive nor negative dynamics—some rose, others fell. However, U.S. President Donald Trump made a series of new statements regarding the Middle East conflict. According to him, there are no leaders left in Iran with whom negotiations can be conducted, but at the same time, he has found "the right people" willing to strike a deal. Trump stated that these individuals are ready to abandon nuclear development and weapons, which gives hope for an agreement that could end the war in the Middle East. Recall that on Monday, Trump reported productive negotiations with Iran, which caused a sharp retreat of bears and a drop in the dollar. If his statements are to be believed, the war could indeed end soon, but the situation with the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear. Obviously, if a deal is reached, Tehran will have to reopen the strait, but no official details are available yet. Traders can only guess: is this another "hoax" from Trump or a real de-escalation process?
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has risen to the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1617. A rebound from this level will favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1474. A bullish trend will become possible after the euro closes above the channel. The first target for bulls is the level of 1.1706. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 52,800 long positions and opened 31,212 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish due to Donald Trump and his policies, but in recent weeks we have seen an active reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 213,000, while short positions total 191,000. The advantage of bulls has almost completely disappeared in just a few weeks.
Overall, in the long term, large players continue to look with strong interest toward the euro. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment in different ways. In particular, the market's focus is currently on the Middle East, where the war continues to escalate and expand geographically. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on the monetary policy of the Fed or the ECB, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. And for now, the dollar is extracting maximum benefit from this situation.
News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On March 25, the economic calendar contains only two entries, neither of which is particularly significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be weak.
EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:
Selling the pair is possible today after a consolidation below 1.1577 with a target of 1.1440. Buy positions could have been opened after a rebound from 1.1440 with a target of 1.1577, which has already been reached. New buy positions became possible after a close above 1.1577 with a target of 1.1696.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
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