25.03.202607:05 Analisis Forex & Kajian: What to Pay Attention to on March 25? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. From the overall list, we can highlight only the UK consumer price index, which will be released early in the morning. This report is extremely important for the Bank of England's monetary policy, but the February figure is unlikely to be significant. Markets are waiting to see how British (and not only) inflation reacts to events in the Middle East and the unprecedented rise in energy prices. The extent to which inflation rises in March will determine the BOE's decision in April. However, we reiterate that today's report will cover February. The business climate index will be published in Germany, and the US macroeconomic events calendar is completely empty.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

General Conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, the market could experience any movement, as a de-escalation in the Middle East could occur at any time. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1584-1.1591, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3403-1.3407. We still do not see grounds for strong, sustained growth in the American currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), and those grounds have diminished further over the past week and into the beginning of the current week.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
4. Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.