24.03.202608:31 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Strategy to allocate another $44bn for Bitcoin purchases

Bitcoin staged a kind of rally after a month-long range — and it immediately ended. On the daily timeframe, it is clear that the current upward move is a weak correction, and there is a liquidity pool below that price is likely to visit with about 90% probability. On the 4?hour timeframe, you can see how slowly Bitcoin is rising, if it is rising at all. A fast, sharp fall in parallel with slow minor gains are classic signs of a downtrend. Therefore, our view remains unchanged — the downtrend is not over; the market is on pause.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump took a first step toward resolving the Middle East conflict. Yesterday the US president reported successful talks with Iran — a claim Tehran promptly denied. But whether the talks are real or not is secondary: the US leader signalled a willingness to end the war. Bitcoin, like many other risk assets, briefly rallied on that news, although the move quickly faded.

Also yesterday, it emerged that Strategy plans to buy another $44 billion of Bitcoin. The company said it will raise the cash by issuing $21 billion of MSTR shares and $21 billion of perpetual preferred stock. All proceeds will be used to purchase "digital gold." Michael Saylor's company, therefore, remains faithful to its core strategy of buying Bitcoin with all available capital at any price. The shares will be sold gradually; currently, the firm holds 763,000 coins worth roughly $54 billion. Strategy thus intends to increase its Bitcoin balance by roughly 1.5–2x. Will that help Bitcoin, which has been in a downtrend for nearly six months?

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a full?fledged downtrend. We still expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even $57,500 no longer looks like the final stop. From POI areas, note only the nearest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, which sits quite far from the price. On the 4?hour TF, one could theoretically use the latest FVG to look for sell signals, but Bitcoin's price action currently has all the hallmarks of a range. Down below, an obvious target is still valid — the liquidity pool beneath two trend lines.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

A downtrend continues to form on the daily TF. The key sell pattern has been and remains the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and prolonged. Since its formation, Ethereum has already fallen about 55% (roughly $2,500). An upside correction is still possible in the near term; the 4?hour order block has been invalidated, and the coin has left the sideways channel. Current charts show only bearish FVGs as POI areas, but on the 4?hour TF, price behaviour is very odd as the price is ignoring many patterns.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). Price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.