23.03.202613:12 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on March 23rd (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The levels I had marked were not tested during the first half of the day, so I did not enter any trades.

Amid the lack of new guidance and rumors that the Bank of Japan may intervene to support the weakening yen, traders chose not to rush decisions, which resulted in slow trading in USD/JPY. This pause was reflected in the absence of strong price movements. Faced with uncertainty, investors adopted a more cautious approach, preferring to wait. The potential intervention by the Bank of Japan aimed at supporting the national currency became a key factor preventing further gains in the pair.

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to significantly support the U.S. dollar, leading to active buying against the Japanese yen. In conditions of uncertainty and the risk of renewed U.S. aggression toward Iran, investors traditionally turn to the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. This increases demand for the dollar despite relatively weak macroeconomic data from the United States.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 159.67 (green line on the chart), with a target of 160.04 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.04, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). A rise in the pair is possible today if the military conflict escalates further.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 159.35 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward 159.67 and 160.04 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 159.35 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 159.05, where I will exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Downward pressure may return at any moment.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 159.67 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 159.35 and 159.05 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line: entry price for buying
• Thick green line: suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line: entry price for selling
• Thick red line: suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator: when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.