20.03.202609:00 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Stock market on March 20: S&P 500 and NASDAQ extend weakness

Yesterday, stock indices closed lower again. The S&P 500 fell by 0.27%, the Nasdaq 100 by 0.28%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.44%.

Volatility remained high heading into the weekend as oil prices eased, while investors assessed US and Israeli efforts to reduce fears of a wider war with Iran.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific index slipped by about 0.2%. S&P 500 futures edged slightly higher. Brent crude retreated from its highest closing level since July 2022 to trade near $107/bbl.

In a recent press statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country had resolved not to strike Iran's energy infrastructure and expressed confidence that the current military campaign would come to an end soon, arguing that Iran's uranium-enrichment program had been paralyzed and ballistic-missile production curtailed. In his view, the balance of power in the region has changed, bringing the active phase of the conflict closer to a close.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump told reporters that he firmly ruled out deploying American ground troops to the conflict zone, stressing his administration has no plans for land-force deployments and remains committed to avoiding full-scale military operations. That statement was taken as an important de-escalation signal, reducing the odds of a wider conflict involving US forces.

Traders remain highly attuned to every geopolitical headline as the conflict has significantly disrupted energy supply chains. Gasoline and jet-fuel prices have spiked, and compressed LNG supplies have sparked tensions in India. The International Energy Agency has called the war the largest supply shock in the history of the oil market.

On Friday, Kuwait shut several units at the Al?Ahmadi refinery after multiple drone strikes caused a fire.

Elsewhere, the US dollar rose by about 0.2% on Friday after a 0.7% retreat in the prior session. The Indian rupee weakened below 93 per dollar to fresh record lows. Benchmark Australian yields hit their highest level in nearly 15 years on Friday, while New Zealand two-year yields reached their highest point in about a year.

As for the S&P 500 technical analysis, buyers' immediate task is to overcome the resistance level of $6,616. This would help the index gain renewed upside momentum and could open the way to $6,627. Holding $6,638 would further strengthen the bullish case. On the downside, buyers must defend around $6,603. A break below that level would quickly bring the trading instrument back down to $6,590 and could open the path to $6,577.