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On Thursday, the British pound (GBP) strengthened significantly against the US dollar (USD) during the North American session after the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged, citing ongoing inflationary pressures exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East.
According to staff at the BoE, the leadership maintained the base rate at 3.75%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still forecasts a decrease in inflation to 3.5% over the next two quarters. The statement noted that the slowdown in economic growth is likely to exert disinflationary pressure; however, the primary risk, according to the central bank, remains associated with rising prices. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that currency markets anticipate real events to some extent, noting that current conditions require maintaining existing policy parameters.
In the US, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending March 14 fell to 205,000 from 213,000, while the Labor Department's forecast anticipated an increase to 215,000.
Nonetheless, the US dollar remains under pressure, largely due to its correlation with WTI crude oil prices.
The day before, the Federal Reserve also kept interest rates unchanged, indicating a more cautious approach to future rate cuts.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that they expect confirmation of sustainable inflation slowing before proceeding with monetary easing. According to Prime Market Terminal data, market participants do not anticipate a Fed rate cut in 2026—the first change could occur only in the first half of 2027.
Next week, the UK is set to release preliminary PMI business activity indexes from S&P Global. In the US, traders will focus on similar PMI reports and new labor market data.
The table below shows the percentage change of the British pound against major currencies over the week. The British pound has shown the strongest strength against the Swiss franc.
From a technical perspective, the pound has reached the 100 and 20-day SMAs around the round level of 1.3400. Breaking through these levels, the next target will be the 200-day SMA, followed by the 50-day SMA. After that, bulls will gain an advantage in the market. Meanwhile, oscillators remain negative, indicating the bulls' weakness.
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