19.03.202608:27 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 19. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Advice for the Euro Currency

The test of the price at 1.1525 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to turn downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 1.1478.

Yesterday's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates triggered a notable uptick in demand for the American dollar. Moreover, the Federal Open Market Committee reaffirmed its earlier expectations of a possible single rate cut this year, citing inflation risks from the US war with Iran and the sharp rise in energy prices.

Today, the focus shifts to the European Central Bank's decision. It is likely that we will not see significant adjustments to the ECB's current policy, so the ECB head's press conference will be crucial for the euro. Lagarde's assessment of fresh inflation data, economic recovery rates, and the impact of geopolitical factors on the European economy will determine the direction of the EUR/USD pair.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today upon reaching a price around 1.1479 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth towards 1.1516. At the 1.1516 level, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips back from the entry point. It is unlikely that the euro will see strong growth today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1463 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.1479 and 1.1516 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1463 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1436, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return with the ECB's dovish stance. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1479 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1463 and 1.1436 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.