17.03.202612:25 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – March 17th

Only the euro was traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not trade anything using the Momentum strategy.

Rather mixed ZEW data from Germany and the eurozone maintained demand for the euro in the first half of the day. Traders may have interpreted these figures as a signal that the economic slowdown in Europe—widely expected due to the Middle East conflict—will not be as severe. This optimism helped support the single European currency despite ongoing concerns about inflation and possible interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank.

The focus will now shift to U.S. data on weekly employment changes from ADP and pending home sales. These indicators are generally considered intermediate. If today's ADP release shows a significant slowdown in job growth—or worse, a decline in employment—it could increase concerns about the resilience of the U.S. economy and put additional pressure on the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, pending home sales serve as a barometer of activity in the housing market, which in turn affects consumer spending and overall business activity. Weak data in this area may indirectly signal declining consumer confidence and a cooling construction sector, which is also a cause for concern.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1524 ? targets: 1.1565 and 1.1609Sell on a breakout below 1.1487 ? targets: 1.1448 and 1.1414

For GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3335 ? targets: 1.3367 and 1.3406
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3306 ? targets: 1.3275 and 1.3248

For USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout above 159.25 ? targets: 159.55 and 159.74
• Sell on a breakout below 159.05 ? targets: 158.80 and 158.53

Mean Reversion strategy (pullback) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1540 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1490 with a return to this level

For GBP/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3359 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3306 with a return to this level

For AUD/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7103 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7055 with a return to this level

For USD/CAD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3704 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3679 with a return to this level