13.03.202612:48 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair has continued to decline for the fourth consecutive day. Pressure on the pound is intensifying due to mostly weak macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom, which, together with the strengthening U.S. dollar, is pushing spot quotes below the 1.3300 level.

According to data from the Office for National Statistics, economic growth in January showed no change, which came in below the forecast of 0.2% and worse than December's figure, when GDP increased by 0.1%.

At the same time, industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month, while manufacturing output showed a modest increase of 0.1%. This mixed dynamic is increasing pressure on the British pound and pulling the GBP/USD pair toward its March low.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, reflected in the U.S. Dollar Index, continues to show steady growth, reaching its highest levels since late November and approaching the October 2025 highs. The American currency is being supported by expectations that a surge in inflation caused by geopolitical tensions will force the Federal Reserve to delay the start of a rate-cutting cycle.

An additional factor strengthening the dollar is the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which is pushing investors toward safe-haven assets. Together, these factors are increasing pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

Investors are now focused on the upcoming release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, expected later during the North American session. In addition, the U.S. economic calendar will feature durable goods orders, the JOLTS job openings report, and preliminary data for consumer sentiment and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan.

Nevertheless, geopolitical risks remain the key driver for the market, continuing to determine the dynamics of the dollar and the behavior of the GBP/USD pair ahead of the weekend.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain negative. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the oversold zone, which suggests that sellers should be cautious when opening new positions, as a pullback or consolidation may occur. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance for the pair remains downward.