12.03.202612:11 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair remains under selling pressure for the third day in a row, dropping below the 1.3400 psychological level. The lack of signs that the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East will end soon continues to support strong demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, increasing pressure on the pound.

An additional source of tension came from a statement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announcing the start of a joint operation with Lebanon's Hezbollah against targets in Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. The announcement came shortly after the most extensive U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory on Tuesday and indicates further escalation in the confrontation between Tehran and forces allied with the United States and Israel.

Meanwhile, reports of attacks on two oil tankers in the northern Persian Gulf, near Iraq and Kuwait, triggered another rise in oil prices.

Higher oil prices increase inflation risks and support elevated yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, which in turn provides additional support for the U.S. dollar.

At the same time, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday indicated a moderate slowdown in inflation in the United States, leaving the Federal Reserve with room for potential interest-rate cuts. This factor limits the potential for further strengthening of the dollar and partly supports the pound sterling.

In addition, a revision of market expectations regarding Bank of England policy is preventing the formation of aggressive bearish positions on the pound. Previously, the market expected three rate cuts in 2026, but now the probability of an interest-rate increase by the end of the year has risen. The regulator's hawkish outlook is helping to contain the decline of the GBP/USD pair and calls for caution when opening short positions.

For better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, which may set the short-term direction for the pair. Additional market volatility may come from UK GDP data and the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, expected on Friday.

Nevertheless, the key driver of market movements remains geopolitical risks and concerns about rising inflationary pressure, which could influence central bank policies and lead to increased volatility in financial markets.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, indicating an advantage for sellers. If prices fail to reclaim the 1.3400 level and hold above it, the pair may accelerate its decline toward 1.3300, with some interim support near 1.3340.