11.03.202612:05 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair is once again attracting buyers, pausing the correction that began the previous day after rebounding from the March low. The sharp decline in oil prices following their rapid rise at the beginning of the week has reduced inflation concerns.

Against this background, the positive performance of stock indices is putting pressure on the U.S. dollar, which is losing ground as a safe-haven asset. This factor is one of the key drivers behind the recovery of the British pound against the dollar.

Additional support for the British currency comes from a revision of market expectations regarding the Bank of England's monetary policy. Previously, investors had priced in three possible interest rate cuts, but the market now assigns nearly a 70% probability to an interest rate increase by the end of the year. This shift in expectations strengthens the pound and contributes to the rise of the GBP/USD pair.

Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and risks related to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz may increase demand for the dollar as the world's reserve currency. This, in turn, could restrain further strengthening of the pound and limit the pair's upward momentum.

Despite recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump that the conflict is nearing its end, hostilities show no signs of decreasing in intensity. The Israeli army has announced a new series of strikes on targets in Iran, as well as missile attacks on Lebanon aimed at infrastructure linked to Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran. These developments could reduce investors' risk appetite and partially support the U.S. dollar, offsetting some of the selling pressure.

At the same time, market participants may prefer to refrain from taking large positions until the release of new U.S. inflation data, or at least until the speech by Bank of England official Breeden. Nevertheless, the fundamental background still appears moderately favorable for bulls in the GBP/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain negative and have not yet moved into positive territory. In addition, bulls have not yet managed to break above the 20-day SMA, nor have they consolidated above the 200-day SMA. Therefore, sellers still hold the advantage. As a result, traders wishing to buy the pound should proceed with caution.