03.03.202614:59 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Gas in Europe tops $700

Wholesale gas prices in Europe have surged sharply. According to the London ICE exchange, prices exceeded $700 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since January 23, 2023. The move reflects geopolitical and infrastructure shocks that have sparked high volatility in the EU gas market.

April futures for the TTF index (the Netherlands, Europe's largest hub) opened trading at 07:00 GMT at $586.7 per 1,000 cubic meters, up 8.8% versus the previous session's settlement price. At 08:11 GMT the futures were trading at $649.8 (+20.5%). Minutes earlier bids reached $710.8 per 1,000 cubic meters (+31.8%). The prior session's settlement was $539.2 per 1,000 cubic meters. The $700 mark was last surpassed on January 23, 2023.

The sharp price rise began on Monday, when prices jumped as much as 50% intraday to $590 per 1,000 cubic meters. Experts quoted by RIA Novosti link the move to a mix of geopolitical risk and supply?infrastructure problems.

QatarEnergy said on Monday it had halted LNG production at all plants after drone attacks. Qatar is the EU's third?largest LNG supplier: according to Eurostat data cited by RIA Novosti, Qatar accounted for 8.4% of the EU's LNG imports in 2025.

Analysts warn that if the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz drags on, Europe could face a price shock comparable to spring 2022, when gas prices reached several thousand dollars. In that episode European gas peaked at $3,892 per 1,000 cubic meters.

How traders can play it

1. Trade TTF futures: short?term long positions can capture price spikes, but strict stop?losses are essential due to high volatility.
2. Options for risk management and speculation: buying calls or using straddles/strangles can be effective ahead of sharp moves; selling options collects premium but carries significant risk.
3. Calendar spreads: if the market moves into contango or backwardation, calendar spreads between near and far contracts allow trading the curve with limited risk.
4. Related markets: monitor oil, power, LNG freight and supplier/shipper equities for additional trade ideas and hedges.
5. News trading and monitoring: keep close watch on producer statements (e.g., QatarEnergy) and geopolitical developments around Hormuz to react quickly to changes in liquidity and volatility.
6. Risk management: diversify, set position limits, use options for protection and conduct scenario planning — all critical in highly uncertain conditions.

These approaches do not eliminate risk — volatility can work for or against traders. Combine trade ideas with strict money management rules and monitor supply and geopolitical news closely.