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Gold is struggling to hold onto the modest gains of the past two days, trading below the $5,200 level. Geopolitical tensions remain in focus amid a significant buildup of U.S. naval and air forces in the Middle East, as well as rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump in his Tuesday address to the nation, where he justified the possibility of a strike on Iran, emphasizing that the "world's leading sponsor of terrorism" must not possess nuclear weapons. These factors, along with uncertainty in trade policy, are increasing demand for the precious metal as a traditional safe-haven asset.
The U.S. has imposed a 10% tariff on all goods—a measure initially announced by Trump following a Supreme Court decision blocking broader tariffs, instead of the previously promised 15%. However, according to a White House representative, the Trump administration is preparing to raise tariffs to 15%, heightening concerns about escalating trade wars, retaliatory measures, and disruptions to global supply chains. Trump's tariff statements are keeping investor anxiety elevated and boosting demand for gold.
Market participants have revised expectations regarding aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve after the January minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) confirmed there is no urgency for further rate cuts and considered the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains persistent. This is keeping the U.S. dollar near a monthly high, limiting gold's upside.
The U.S.–Iran agreement to continue nuclear negotiations reduces the risk of military scenarios, which is also restraining gold's rally and calls for caution from buyers.
Today, to identify better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data during the North American session, as well as comments from key FOMC members, which could stimulate demand for the dollar and set the trajectory for XAU/USD ahead of the weekend.
The yellow metal is posting gains for the fourth consecutive week, and the overall fundamental backdrop suggests that corrective pullbacks will likely be viewed as buying opportunities.
From a technical perspective, on the way toward the all-time high, gold faces its nearest resistance levels at $5,200 and $5,250; if bulls break above them, they will clear the path higher. However, if the round $5,000 level—where the 20-day SMA runs—fails to hold, bears will increase their positions. Still, as long as the daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, the path of least resistance is upward.
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