20.02.202619:44 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on February 20th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.42 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 25 points.

The second half of the day promises to be truly eventful for financial market participants. The release of U.S. GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2025 is in the spotlight. Investors will carefully analyze every figure to assess the sustainability of economic growth and its future prospects. If the data exceed forecasts, this could trigger new dollar buying and selling of the Japanese yen.

Additional tension will come from the PMI business activity indices. Both the manufacturing sector and the services sector, represented by their respective PMI indices, will reflect the current state of business activity. Manufacturing data are expected to remain under pressure, while the services sector is likely to continue showing signs of growth. The Composite PMI, which combines indicators from both sectors, will serve as a consolidated measure of overall business activity.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry point around 155.55 (green line on the chart), with a target of 156.15 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.15, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). A rise in the pair today can be expected after strong GDP data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 155.30 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 155.55 and 156.15 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 155.30 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.58, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of weak reports.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 155.55 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.30 and 154.58 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.