20.02.202619:37 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on February 20th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The test of the 1.1762 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

During today's U.S. trading session, a stream of important economic data is expected. Financial market professionals will focus on the preliminary data on U.S. GDP growth for the final quarter of 2025. The release of this report will provide insight into the country's economic activity at the end of last year, allowing an assessment of its current condition.

Another key release that will attract attention during overseas trading is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index. This indicator is of primary importance to the Federal Reserve, as it serves as one of the main benchmarks in analyzing inflation processes and shaping monetary policy. Any deviations from forecasts could trigger increased market volatility.

In addition, analysts will closely monitor business activity indicators. Positive dynamics in these indicators will support the dollar and renew pressure on the euro.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.1773 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1802. At 1.1802, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A strong rise in the euro can only be expected after weak economic data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1751 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1773 and 1.1802 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1751 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1718, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1773 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1751 and 1.1718 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.