13.02.202612:27 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on February 13th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British Pound

The first test of the 1.3599 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 1.3599 coincided with MACD being in the oversold area, leading to the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by more than 20 points.

Important U.S. inflation data expected today carry the potential to create additional pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Traders and analysts are closely watching the January Consumer Price Index figures and its core version, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy prices. These numbers will serve as a key indicator of inflation trends in the world's largest economy. If actual inflation data exceed forecasts, this will likely strengthen the U.S. dollar. High inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish tone. In this scenario, the British pound may come under pressure. The UK economy has not yet shown convincing signs of resilience, as reflected in yesterday's GDP growth report, and it continues to face its own inflation challenges and uncertainty.

On the other hand, if January's U.S. CPI comes in below expectations, this could weaken the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3640 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.3681 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3681, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move from that level). A rise in the pound today can be expected after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3612 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3640 and 1.3681 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after a breakout below the 1.3612 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3571, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move from that level). Pressure on the pound will return today in the event of strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3640 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3612 and 1.3571 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.