12.02.202614:59 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Crypto market: no reason to cheer up

Bitcoin has recovered slightly after yesterday's sell-off, aiming for the $68,000 mark.

Meanwhile, the crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to a record low of 5 out of 100. That is an "extreme fear" reading — even lower than during the Terra crash in 2022. Such a sharp drop in market sentiment signals deep pessimism among investors. Readings this low typically occur during major sell-offs and high uncertainty, when fears of further losses dominate.

Extreme fear conditions are characterized by panic and frenzied selling. Investors and traders in this state often make impulsive decisions, selling assets at unreasonably low prices out of fear of further declines — as evidenced by the persistent selling pressure now visible in the market.

The index is now lower than it was during the Terra meltdown that highlights the scale of current concerns. Recent events that contributed to this drop include aggressive US trade policy under Trump, geopolitical tensions, the nomination of a new Fed chair, and capitulations by large market participants using heavy leverage.

But there is a silver lining. Such an extremely low index is often viewed as a potential buying signal to pick up assets at attractive prices. Historically, periods of extreme panic have sometimes preceded market recoveries as prices bottom out. However, a sentiment shift alone is not enough — it needs to be confirmed by fundamental improvements or positive news.

For now, with the index at such a low level, bearish sentiment prevails. In the short term this may mean continued downtrends or sideways trading with high volatility. Restoring investor confidence will require sustained positive signals, which are not yet evident.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $68,900, which would open a direct path to $72,100 and then to $74,600. The farther target is around $77,300; breaking that level would indicate attempts to restore the bull market. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $65,600. A move below that area could quickly push BTC toward $62,600. The far downside target is $60,100.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,060 opens a direct path to $2,169. The farther target is around $2,279; surpassing that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $1,972. A move back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $1,874. The far downside target is $1,783.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.